Monday, April 4, 2016

Why so few futurology departments?


The past century has seen extremely rapid technological changes that alter the way that we live. Medicine has extended our lives substantially, and changed the way that we die. Transportation has allowed people to remain interconnected throughout the world. Communication systems keep us in constant contact with each other. These changes will pale in comparison with the kinds of changes that we will see with the development of better artificial intelligence. If the pasty century is any guide, the next century should see much more upheaval

Beyond the next five, ten, or twenty years, society is unplanned at virtually every level. We don't have significant plans for how we will adapt to coming technologies. While we could treat them the way that we have done so so far -- allowing the market and individual preferences to dictate how technology is used -- it seems wiser to make important decisions carefully and with extensive thought. 

The most pressing question concerns how to organize society once labor is unnecessary or inefficient for the majority. What happens once almost no one needs to work? What should we do with our lives? What role should government play in this? How should we prepare for it? This is already starting to happen, and it will probably lead to greater changes in our lifestyle than anything has since the invention of culture.

Futurology, focused on the normative dimensions of coming technology, should be a significant part of research universities focus. At present, it is possible to make a career thinking about social, cultural, and political issues relating to future technologies, but it is very rare for people to actively devote their careers to it, and not much work is being done. Just as with cognitive science, there are a number of different domains in which relevant research is being done simultaneously. Researchers in economics, political science, sociology, psychology, and philosophy should be brought together for this purpose. 

While it may not currently make sense to offer futurology as an undergraduate degree, it does make sense to begin to organize and fund research with this focus, and to encourage researchers working in related disciplines to start specializing in it. 

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